Friday, August 5, 2011

A historic day

So payrolls came in above expectations - but S&P downgraded the US to AA+. In longer view the downgrade may be a good thing if it causes enough political motivation to do more. The rating statement specifically mentioned a need to do more on entitlements.

In the short term it ought not to affect the markets too much directly, as they should already be pricing in fiscal problems (although rates are near historic lows for cyclical reasons.) But it is a hit to broader psychology and a HUGE political story.

Most of all, the risk-free rate, used in all sorts of financial formulas, and always identified with the treasury rates, iis no longer risk-free. And that is something.

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