Congress is still in deadlock over the debt ceiling, and it is increasingly likely that one or more of the rating agencies will downgrade the US. The risk-free rate itself will no longer be risk-free. And there is probably a 5-10% chance of a technical default. Yet the 10-year rate is still close to 3%.
It feels a bit like sitting on a volcano. You just hope it's not going to explode for a while yet.
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